Goal Scoring

A Gift From The Universe...Or Geographic Superiority?

Great Goal Scorers Aren't Born; They Are Well-Located

Mark Taylor presents a nice statistical representation of the difficulties of scoring goals when he compares direct free kicks to open play chances.  Given that a direct kick must be taken 18 or more yards from goal, and five years of EPL data show that teams convert those chances at about a 7-8% clip (he offers that the data set is so small we need another 5 years of data from the teams in question: all have been in the EPL since 2008) Taylor submits that the analogue in open play is a scoring chance within an arc extending out to 16 yards from the center of the goal.

Seems fairly intuitive.

However, as stat nerds scramble to say "duh," (eye-rolling optional) think about what that says about chances from inside 16 yards.  A team needs to take about 14 and a half shots inside that range to get a goal.




Look at this handy table by the wonderful stat junkies at Whoscored:

The most productive team in Europe in creating shots barely cracks 20 per game.  And that's all shots; free kicks, long range shots, PKs, and so on.

So what about this, for example- from the Brazilian Serie A in 2010, stats for shots inside the 18:

4 teams averaged over a goal and a half in 90 minutes, taking no fewer than ~5.5 shots per game inside 18 yards.  A couple points here.  First, the number of shots needed to score inside 18 yards is much lower than the EPL data would suggest.  This could be due to A. The EPL defenders are better than their Brazilian counterparts, and so prevent shots more effectively, or, B. the much smaller data set (one season v. five) just doesn't offer the same robustness of information.  Perhaps, too, the Brazilian finishers are better than their counterparts.  Officiating could play a role as well.  The culture of diving may factor, too.

Second, while this data are more encouraging than the EPL stuff above, we're still looking at a strike rate of around 27%.  Think baseball tolerates constant failure?  A striker hitting the back of the net on 27% of his shots inside the 18 is called Radamel Falcao (actually about 22% on the year - though that's regardless of distance from goal...most of his work is inside the 18, though), and he's going to be one of the most expensive transfers this summer in the world.

Regardless, it would seem to confirm the notion that more shots inside the 18 equals more goals.  But they only get a max of 7 shots inside the 18 per game.  That's sobering stuff for players who want to score goals.  The article at StatDNA.com from which I got this chart goes on to point out that the 14% chance of scoring inside the penalty area is nearly 4.5 times higher than open play shots from outside the 18 yard area.  This is consistent with a post in this space some time ago.

So what of it all?

Simply this: teams would do well to encourage players to train to get the ball entered into the penalty area in a variety of ways, and to give their players ample finishing training inside that space.  Bayern Munich this season have scored 134 times in all competitions, have the second-highest average possession rate behind Barcelona and concede a mere .6 goals per game.  And they take the third-highest number of shots per game in Europe.  That's a lethal combination of factors.  Of those shots, 67% are from inside the 18.  That's a great team that plays the odds.  To the tune of 380+ shots inside the 18 this season.

The player who gets that last ball inside the 18 is in good shape to score...so, can you get there?