MLS Combine/Hermann Trophy

Best Of The Best

Interesting item this week...the MLS released the 55 players invited to the MLS Combine; ostensibly the best players in America at the college level.

If you scan through the NSCAA's list of the Missouri Athletic Club's Hermann Trophy semi-finalists, you'll find a mere six of those 16 players on both lists.

The other 49 are good enough that the MLS has offered a shot at the big time, but not good enough for the college selection committee to put in the top 16...talent identification (or, human resources/hiring) is the toughest part of any business, and clearly what works well at one level doesn't translate to the next level every time.  Past performance does not indicate future returns...

MLS Combine Invitees (Hermann Trophy Semifinalists in red):
SaadAbdul-Salaam University of Akron
MiguelAguilarUniversity of San Francisco
FataiAlasheMichigan State
TylerArnoneUniversity of Michigan
DominiqueBadji Boston University
OumarBallo UMBC
LaurieBell UW-Milwaukee
SalvadorBernal UNLVM
NickBesler Notre Dame
AdriaBeso MarcoUConn
AndrewBevinWest Virginia 
EricBirdUniversity of Virginia
ConnorBrandtUniversity of San Diego
SergioCampbellUConn
SethCasipleCalifornia
WesleyCharpieUniversity of South Florida
AndyCravenUniversity of North Carolina
OtisEarlUC Riverside
EarlEdwards, Jr.UCLA
MarcFenelusCalifornia State University Fullerton
OnielFisherUniversity of New Mexico
TomasGomezGeorgetown
ConnorHalliseyCalifornia
CameronIwasaUC Irvine
DanielKellerUniversity of Louisville
RobertKristoSt. Louis University
SagiLev-AriCalifornia State University Northridge
RobLovejoyUniversity of North Carolina
FabioMachadoProvidence College
IgnacioMagantoIona College
AnthonyManningSt. Louis University
RamonMartin DelCampoUC Davis
ShawnMcLawsCoastal Carolina University
DanMetzgerUniversity of Maryland
TylerMillerNorthwestern
LukeMishuNotre Dame
AdamMontagueMichigan State
CraigNittiLoyola Marymount
BoydOkwuonuUniversity of North Carolina
TimParkerSt. John’s University
NikolaPaunicUniversity of South Florida
MattPolsterSIU-Edwardsville
JoseRibasCreighton University
SidneyRiveraOld Dominion University
JamesRogersUniversity of New Mexico
ManoloSanchezClemson University
WillSeymourOregon State
KhirySheltonOregon State
AaronSimmonsUCLA
LeoStoltzUCLA
AndyThomaUniversity of Washington
SkylarThomasSyracuse University
AndrewTusaazemajjaUCLA
ChristianVoleskySIU-Edwardsville
AndrewWolvertonPennState

Shoot it! we scream...

Avoid The Sucker's Bet

Soccer isn't about the stats, say so many luddites who subscribe to 'Arry Redknapp's approach of "just go run around a bit;" “You can argue about formations, tactics and systems forever, but to me football is fundamentally about the players,” he once argued in a column for the Sun. “... the numbers game is not the beautiful game in my opinion.”

OK, it's ironic that a coach who's never been anywhere near Redknapp's level would take issue, but it's precisely that difference that makes stats useful.  If I said to a player to do something one way, they'd be fair (though snotty, I think) to ask why?  what have you ever won doing it that way?

However, if I say to a player or team, try to avoid settling for shots from outside 18 yards or so, and show them this graphic, I may have a better chance of convincing:

The graphic is from a story addressing how Manchester United looked statistically average in 2012-13 in Ferguson's final season but ended up winning the Premier League in a walk.  A New Yorker piece claiming it was luck started the conversation...both articles are fascinating, and each argument has it's merits.  Luck is undoubtedly a factor in sport; the trick is knowing when to give up control of a factor to the fates.

Two things are giving me a headache right now...one, every parent or coach or teammate who ever screamed at a kid (especially kids) to shoot from beyond the 18.  Stupid, stupid, stupid.  Would you suggest your kid apply to a college where they have a 1-2 % chance of admission?  (Of course you would...your kid is special)  That's pretty analogous to shooting from that range.  So that's a pet peeve of mine.  And a fine example of people offering advice on subjects about which they know very little.

Second...and less sarcastically, as a coach this makes things really tricky.  Players who are confident and shoot well from range are desirable, they stretch defenses and have a positive attitude...but they convert those shots at 8% of the average conversion rate of shots from inside 12 yards (2% versus 25%).  Knowing the odds, but also knowing that players are capable of special moments (and should be encouraged to attempt to be special) I struggle with the gray area of supporting low-percentage (but positive) attempts, creativity, and higher-percentage attempts.  Isn't it, after all, a higher level of creativity to combine with teammates, dribble with slick tricks and get into the penalty area (or beyond, see the Ferguson Line in the graphic above!) versus just launching a shot from 20 yards?

Players mustn't be shackled to stats...but they can certainly benefit from a solid understanding of what the odds are...coaches and teammates must be flexible and understanding of this balancing act.  Parents and fans should be quiet.  Perhaps old 'Arry would agree that playing the odds is alright...the formation does not, we can all agree, take shots; the players do.

As Samir Nasri proves here...