Shoot it! we scream...

Avoid The Sucker's Bet

Soccer isn't about the stats, say so many luddites who subscribe to 'Arry Redknapp's approach of "just go run around a bit;" “You can argue about formations, tactics and systems forever, but to me football is fundamentally about the players,” he once argued in a column for the Sun. “... the numbers game is not the beautiful game in my opinion.”

OK, it's ironic that a coach who's never been anywhere near Redknapp's level would take issue, but it's precisely that difference that makes stats useful.  If I said to a player to do something one way, they'd be fair (though snotty, I think) to ask why?  what have you ever won doing it that way?

However, if I say to a player or team, try to avoid settling for shots from outside 18 yards or so, and show them this graphic, I may have a better chance of convincing:

The graphic is from a story addressing how Manchester United looked statistically average in 2012-13 in Ferguson's final season but ended up winning the Premier League in a walk.  A New Yorker piece claiming it was luck started the conversation...both articles are fascinating, and each argument has it's merits.  Luck is undoubtedly a factor in sport; the trick is knowing when to give up control of a factor to the fates.

Two things are giving me a headache right now...one, every parent or coach or teammate who ever screamed at a kid (especially kids) to shoot from beyond the 18.  Stupid, stupid, stupid.  Would you suggest your kid apply to a college where they have a 1-2 % chance of admission?  (Of course you would...your kid is special)  That's pretty analogous to shooting from that range.  So that's a pet peeve of mine.  And a fine example of people offering advice on subjects about which they know very little.

Second...and less sarcastically, as a coach this makes things really tricky.  Players who are confident and shoot well from range are desirable, they stretch defenses and have a positive attitude...but they convert those shots at 8% of the average conversion rate of shots from inside 12 yards (2% versus 25%).  Knowing the odds, but also knowing that players are capable of special moments (and should be encouraged to attempt to be special) I struggle with the gray area of supporting low-percentage (but positive) attempts, creativity, and higher-percentage attempts.  Isn't it, after all, a higher level of creativity to combine with teammates, dribble with slick tricks and get into the penalty area (or beyond, see the Ferguson Line in the graphic above!) versus just launching a shot from 20 yards?

Players mustn't be shackled to stats...but they can certainly benefit from a solid understanding of what the odds are...coaches and teammates must be flexible and understanding of this balancing act.  Parents and fans should be quiet.  Perhaps old 'Arry would agree that playing the odds is alright...the formation does not, we can all agree, take shots; the players do.

As Samir Nasri proves here...