Cox V. Clegg

Free Flowing, Yes.  Random, No.
Stats, Video, Logic

Along with Paul Gardner, Jonathan Clegg is one of the writers I love to read because I am almost certain we'll disagree (mostly because he covers the NY Giants and I'm a Pats fan).  Not that Clegg writes a whole lot about soccer.  Go to the Wall Street Journal's homepage and search for Clegg.  62 hits, mostly NFL, a handful of NBA and a random horse racing story.  But he wrote this during the EURO 2012 competition, essentially claiming that soccer is chaos, a pig in tactical lipstick done up by managers justifying their enormous salaries.

His argument is sound enough, and he even gets a few soccer cognoscenti to weigh in on his points.  But after we did a simple technical exercise at training a week or so ago focused on heading, I found this interesting analysis by Michael Cox (a writer I nearly always agree with) discussing the Swedish soon-to-be-lawyer cum center back for West Brom, Jonas Olsson.  This guy is a hatchet.  While Cox shows that he's relatively quiet for a center back, he's pretty terrifying, because, like guys like Vidic (Man U), Ivanovic (Chelsea) and Huth (Stoke City) you just can't be sure when he's going to haul someone down, hit them late, or otherwise terrorize the opponent.  But he has weaknesses, mainly heading (odd for a central defender) and this screen grab of Cox's screen grab shows a wonderful highlight (enlarge and read Cox's text, too):

We can see, and Cox points this out, there was a clear emphasis on QPR's choice of sides to attack.  While Clegg argues (with the classic absolutism of neophyte) it's all chaos and genius after the opening whistle, Cox's excellent writing proves something else.  Certainly, individual brilliance seizes the opportunity (and at its best creates opportunities) forged by a team.  Maradona waltzing through the English defense in '86 from well inside his own half, Ibrahimovic hitting an overhead from the touchline earlier this fall (too late in the year for the first video clip; scroll to the bottom for his shot), or some of these fairly ridiculous strikes are clearly remarkable athletes executing choices that no coach would advise:

But, look closely and you'll see that one or two are from corners, others take advantage of defenses that drop too deep, too quick (the women's goal) and virtually all benefit from the ball being used in advantageous areas.  The preceding actions, then, lead to the goals.  As much as Clegg would have us believe (because perhaps only the NFL has "real" tactics) it's all just random, effective teams employ team-wide strategies to get and keep the ball in advantageous areas.  Whether it is Swansea staying out of the relegation zone a year ago in their first Premier League season by playing keep ball in their own half (and thereby infuriating EPL purists who want open, sprint-speed football) or Man U dropping deep against Tottenham this past week and trying to soak up pressure and hit on the break (thanks to Van Persie evidently misinterpreting the offside law a good plan failed) teams are highly organized, opponents well-scouted, and in reality the game is well-organized at the higher levels.  It's when a team executes the game plan that the individual brilliance may come to the fore, and earn the glory.

Clegg says:

In an era when the top teams are filled with studs like Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo and Germany's Mario Gomez, who combine lightning speed with punishing size, soccer has become a game about getting a ball onto a player's feet where he has space to operate, wherever it exists. Make a pass and sprint into space is the basic plan that most of the best teams follow. Defenders try to combat it with compact blocs in the middle of the field.

He's right, of course...but how exactly does a team prevent an opponent from "...getting a ball onto a player's feet where he has space to operate..."?  Weak defenders offer space; great defenders take up more space than poor ones.  Generally speaking, defenses these days are remarkably difficult to open up.  Olsson's weakness in the air offers space around him for QPR to play, or force his teammates closer to him, leaving space elsewhere to take advantage of...it's not much of a chink in West Brom's armor, but it's the best shot QPR had.

Soccer is a zero-sum game when managing 120X80 yards of green space.  There are 20 outfield players, and if one moves, space is left where he isn't.  A good offense makes defenders move where they'd rather not, and exploits that space.  The bonus, the reason Messi and Ronaldo and Falcao get so much attention, is that they add the ability to improvise to a situation that is already well-scripted.  The resulting unpredictability destabilizes the match further; but tactics ensure those type of players get the ball under conditions where they can flourish.  Would Messi or Ronaldo be as successful if they played for Southampton?

You need that individual brilliance in a team....but watch the excellent defending by Sweden that got the ball away from England just before Joe Harte botched the clearance and Ibrahimovic hit the most outrageous of shots.  It's not all chaos!