NCAA Stats

The Backward Pass

All the soccer nerds love to say that possession must be "with a purpose," with the implication that too many teams are just keeping the ball for the sake of keeping the ball.  The fallacy in that logic is that extremely few teams are actually talented enough to keep the ball just for fun (and only the least competent coach would ask a team to play thus).  The lack of incisiveness in many youth games does often leave spectators thinking that the team is keeping ball for no particular reason, but players value having the ball, and are criticized harshly when dispossessed, so there is real reticence on their part to lose the ball.  Further, it's pretty reasonable to admit that amateur and youth players are vastly less likely to see penetrating passing lanes, have the skill to create those lanes, or the teamwork ironed out sufficiently to take advantage.  That's why they're amateurs, and Pirlo is Pirlo.

Those turnovers are scary, and coaches get upset...ah, but it is a part of the game...and like all aspects of the game, it is just a problem to be solved for, a situation to manage.

Here's a little un-scientific study we did recently at Haverford College, compared to some EPL stats, which is pretty illuminating (inspired by the analysis here, regarding Alejandro Bedoya of the USMNT).  Our group likes to talk about being a possession team, and compared to many NCAA DIII programs, we are....but that term can mean so many things!  Forgive my clumsy graphic work, but here's a couple games worth of data (we tracked lateral passes which the OPTA data below don't...make of that what you will):

Now here's the EPL stuff:

Admittedly, it's a two-game sample for the college guys, but it's a little alarming that the worst team in the EPL in terms of passing backward is still just under half the rate of the college team.  There are stylistic differences, of course; City and Arsenal are playing short, quick passes with lots of possession, while Chelsea will often play counter-attacking passes and Man U are trying to establish a possession game in fits and starts, and while topping the charts in long balls played forward.  Game state is a factor, too, teams that spend a lot of time trailing will often launch balls forward in a hurry-up offense fashion.

No matter what, it's a stark contrast that deserves further investigation in the NCAA ranks...

DATA :
This post from 2012 shows EPL clubs starting at 78% FORWARD...
This is the post from 2014-15 EPL data used in this 192 Square Feet post