Gambling

SHOOT!

Ever told a player to shoot when he or she was outside of the 18 yard area?  Uh-oh...

Watched about 1200 minutes of soccer over the weekend in my recruiting role for Haverford College.  Took a steady stream of data on shooting as I scouted talent, and here's some interesting thoughts:

Is Toni Kroos Foolish?

Knowing that 10% of all shots will end up as goals at the pro level, the weekend showed a couple things.  One, top club players aren't very close to that number.  Two, they take shots (and are encouraged to shoot) from beyond 18 yards way, way, way too often.

It's not this easy...and Toni Kroos is not normal...

Let me show you the harsh reality of that very shot...

Look how stupid it is to take a shot from >18 yards: 6% conversion in zone 3 compared to 14.4% conversion in zone 2.  A bit harsh...mmm, perhaps (Kroos nodding in agreement as he checks his bank statement).

But, If you have the time to load up a shot, haven't you the time to dribble a defender, or slip a pass, work a combination?  Why opt for a chance that is 3 times less likely to go in?  

Honestly, if I made you buy a stock that had a 6% chance of increasing in value, would you be psyched?

Patience Is A Virtue

In zone 1 it takes less than 4 shots to score; in zone 2 fewer than 6 shots to score; in zone 3 it was exactly 1 goal in 15 shots.  In nearly 21 hours of soccer, I saw 138 shots and 13 goals...that's just under 9 minutes per shot (NCAA Men's DI averaged a shot every 7 minutes in 2014).  If it's that hard to get a shot off, it has to be worth the extra effort to triple or quadruple your odds of scoring.  

If you launch from beyond the 18, you'll need to play for 135 minutes to score- exactly a game and a half.

Get to zone 2 and you'll need a mere 36 minutes. 

Which team wins that match-up?

Land Of The Gods

And teams that shoot from zones 4 & 5?  2 goals in 46 attempts (and both were breakaway situations where the GK was very high off his line) or a goal every 207 minutes.  It's so unlikely that unless it's a breakaway, it is almost not worth the attempt.  

Great players score from here, true...but their modest improvements on the averages are outweighed by the sweaty masses trying to score from those difficult positions (thereby lowering the average...you know the guy, sleeping in the back of class, wrecking the curve).  And they get real close to Zones 1 & 2 before they let fly.  

If you're Dennis Berkamp, it's doable...but this is by far his most famous goal, not an everyday kind of strike:

)

THINK

Finally, 56% of all the attempts I marked were from inside zones 1 & 2.  44% of the shots came from areas where we're thrilled to convert at a rate of one-in-ten.  There is probably a ratio that a team could aim for which would offer higher probability chances more often without being completely predictable - ie: never shooting from >18 yards.  

Of the 151 total attempts I tracked, the 44% from outside zones 1 & 2 account for 66 shots.  Say we took half of those and added them to the zone 1 and 2 count = 184 shots.  If we keep it simple and take the average conversion rate of the two kindest zones (18%) that would give us almost 6 more goals.  Four more than we got by launching double that number of attempts from outside 18 yards!  

As a quick aside, if you didn't take any zone 4 & 5 shots, and piled the remaining 33 shots into zone 3, limiting all shots to the three central areas, you'd still get your 2 goals from outside 18 yards.  So why the wide areas at all, then?  Crosses, and dribble penetration to set up shots from the central areas...

Appendix:

(Why Ronaldo Is So Damn Good)

Great players make the most of unlikely situations, but they don't force the issue.  Look at the numbers, then watch Ronaldo.  The odd wonder strike, for sure, but most of his goals come from the central part of the field, while those 15 at the bottom are perhaps not Zones 1-2 (28 of 55, not counting PKs - 7 - ) they aren't off by much...borderland shooting.

His stat line, 2012-13, all 55 goals:

Free Kicks

PKs - 7

Zone 3 - 1 (direct)

Zone 4/5 - 2 (direct)

Live Play

Zone 1 - 8

Zone 2 - 20

Zone 3 - 2

Zone 4/5 - 15 (three were 1v1 with the GK...ALL were inside the 18 and very, very close to being central enough to be Zone 1 or 2)

Interestingly, 66% of his goals came from the three central zones.  If we included the 7 PKs and the Zone 3 direct free kick goal, he would be at 71% and some change.  More to the point, only 4 of his 55 goals came from outside the 18 (and two of those were free kicks - which go in at a little better than double the rate of shots from live play, historically).

Here's the proof:

References:

http://differentgame.wordpress.com/spam-our-model/

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2010/6/12/1515352/soccer-shot-location-and-shooting

http://differentgame.wordpress.com/2013/12/05/the-keepers-comfort-zone/