Fords Go Left For The Win
Turnover Data Reveal The Price Of Youth
In a return visit to the site of 2012's NCAA first and second round tournament games for the Fords, the result was more definitive than the taut 2-2 draw and PK shootout win over Wesleyan in the first round, or the tough loss to Stevens Tech in the second! It was the noticeable lack of success on the right side of the Fords' attack and joy found on the left that defined the match.
Arcadia were forced to use a reserve right back (3 Games Played, 1 Start and only 3 appearances as a freshman for 45 minutes total time in 2013) as well as a inconsistent starter at right center back (4 GP & 3 S) and while there are many reasons this can disrupt a defense, the outcome was that Haverford enjoyed more success on their left side than the right. That Whittle was playing behind a freshman winger, Herrera (9 starts in 9 games) may have contributed; too few freshmen arrive at the college level with a real understanding of the defensive obligations. By contrast the 9GP/9S left center back and left back are sophomore and junior, and the left mid is a senior with 9GP/8S.
To illustrate the point, the image below shows Haverford's turnovers and goals:
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Haverford is attacking toward the top of the image...the data include the full 90 minutes worth of play. The stars represent the goals, namely where they originated from. A squiggly line is a dribble, a dashed line is a pass, and a solid arrow is the shot itself. Other symbols: "T" is a turnover in live play; "6" is a goal kick; "GK" is a ball into the GK's hands; a solid triangle is a foul committed.
Most telling are the two red dashed boxes. Unlike on the right side, there are clearly two large areas where the Fords never turned a ball over. That the GK got to three or four balls right at the top of his box (central and to the Fords' left) shows the intensity of pressure the right back and right center back were under. The GK was cleaning those balls up in counter attack situations, the lack of Ts otherwise indicates that the Arcadian defenders were chasing shadows. Given that Arcadia only forced 10 turnovers in the Fords' half, such lopsided possession would imply that there should be a more even spread of defensive stops throughout the Arcadian half. The two areas highlighted prove otherwise, and it's clear that those spaces were both exploited on the goals, as players dribbled forward into the spaces to start the goalscoring movements.
Another telling point can be seen if we count the Fords' turnovers between the touchline and the edge of the 18 yard area, from the Arcadia endline to midfield. ~17 Ts on the right side of the Haverford attack...versus a mere 6 on the left side. Haverford enjoyed more corners on the left side, conceded more goal kicks from the left side (indicating either shots at goal or penetrating byline attacks) and forced the GK to come for through balls more often from that side.
It's entirely up to the Arcadian staff to decide the whys of this data, but for the neutral observer it simply shows how a pattern manifests itself within a match; great players & teams sense these patterns even as they begin to emerge, and emphasize the favorable patterns while reinforcing the unfavorable areas. We can feel confident in this pattern as the Fords played a relatively balanced game. If we add up "T"s + "6"s + Corners (the "angle" symbols: "<") and the two goals, it looks like this:
Left Side Center Right Side
28 Plays 57 Plays 29 Plays
That's nearly perfect balance - maybe not desirable (could the Fords have scored more by shifting more attacks to the left?) Tejean Wolcott hit the left post on a near-post effort, Matt Clausen hit the crossbar from a play from the left side, and hit the far post on a shot from the left side...so perhaps just unlucky in that regard...but still, if the attacks had been played such that we lost 15 balls on the right and 45 on the left, what would that have done to the game?
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