U14 Age Data

My Kid Isn't Great...Just Older

UPDATED 6/15

I'll keep a running tally of the rosters of our opponents this year, a simple data set that examines the distribution of 1999/1998/1997 birth years among the U14 teams we play.  So far, we've beaten firmly the youngest team we've faced, and lost narrowly on the road to a team with a similar spread of players by age.  Some research on youth sports indicates that birth year is a better indicator of success than anything else; simply, the older team will be the better team.  This was made famous by Malcom Gladwell (see point #5) but there is actual, real academic research that demonstrates the theory.  Michigan State has some stuff.  Snobby about Big Ten schools?  Check out the Princeton version of the subject.  More hockey stuff, but relevant, though less scholarly here, with some thoughts on resolving the issue.  I like the notion of bringing a more merit-based approach to youth sports (rather than the current lip-service) and truly offering equal opportunity at the critical youth age groups.  I refuse to believe that a coach (especially ones who don't make their living coaching) can predict at 6-7-8 who will be a top player in adulthood.  Ridiculous.



Certainly at the youngest ages, it makes some sense.  At 8 or 9 years old, the difference between a July birth date (the USYSA/USSF "year" cuts off at 8/1/1997 - the Development Academy - Boys - uses a slightly different rubric) and an August birth date is massive.  I have only to look at my nearly-two-year-old son and compare him to our neighbor's son who is four months older and see the dramatic changes to come for us in the next four months, give or take.  As players get older, things do even out, but even at the college level we see players drastically alter their approach and effectiveness over the course of their four years.  This is yet one more reason why I claim that the coaching a kid receives needn't be world-class...it just has to be timely (age appropriate) and enthusiastic, player-centric (not results-focused, or, God forbid, a resume-builder for the coach) and reasonably accurate technically and in demonstrations.  The bar, in truth, is pretty low.  It's not like Da Vinci went to school to learn exactly how to paint the Mona Lisa...he learned from some good teachers, but was able to use the techniques to reinvent things a bit; there is no formula for success.

So, long story short, I strive to provide the very best information I can, and motivate the boys to train thoughtfully and intently, and at the end of the day, will most likely beat the younger teams and lose to the older ones!  But we'll see how it goes.  And I'd add that when I consider our roster, the boys are settled into positions that seem to suit them very well, for the most part.  Even our youngest players, Jared, Diego, CJ and Geordi (born in, respectively, April, March, January and March) hold their own; two start regularly in the back (Jared - with one assist in two games played - and Geordi) and Diego is pretty well locked-in at the central striker job with Ezra Mead (June, 98) and has tallied a goal this year already.  CJ is still working his way into comfort at the U14 level after moving up from the U12 age group last year, and while he's finding his way, he certainly does the team no harm when he's out there!  On the other end, of our six 97s, four start (Brian Meeks, Andrew Kolceski, Francesco Spoletini and Ryan Tuttle) and the other two (Dakota Thomas and Kamran Shaikh) are having very good seasons so far.

To be honest, I'm not totally certain what all this means...it's a very small sample size to draw any sort of legitimate conclusions, but we can see that twice as many 97s start as compared to 99s.  Though there are 50% more 97s than 99s...

I feel that our preparation of the 99s has been very good.  All four boys are very good players, and are having an impact on our team's fortunes.  So perhaps we are evening out the birth date factor.  Or perhaps we got very good kids, and were just lucky that those four are so talented.  The truth is probably somewhere in the middle!

The Data:

OSSC U14s :
              4 - 1999
            12 - 1998
              6 - 1997

Krasnijc (2-0 W Home; 3-0 W @)  :
               8 - 1999
               9 - 1998
               2 - 1997

Syracuse Fusion (2-3 L @; --- Home) :
               3 - 1999
             12 - 1998
               3 - 1997

Baldwinsville Youth Soccer (AKA Soccer Central) (4-0 L Home; ---@) :
               2 - 1999
               8 - 1998
             11 - 1997
(additionally, 7 of the 11 were born in the first quarter of the soccer year; all 11 were born in the first six months of the soccer year - August-January)