MLS Stats

Goal Scoring:

Like Real Estate- Location, Location, Location

Some thoughts on goal scoring, and how it may correlate to successful team's performances.  Granted, there is a long way to go from a single player's goal scoring and a team's record, but they are related, and good teams tend to have players who finish well- however that is defined.



In the first grab, we see this week's MLS conference standings...

In the second one we see the teams who finish best inside the 18.  Hit 'em all you like from outside, if you fancy a 4 to 5 percent chance of scoring.  If you're a real goal scorer, you get inside the 18, and finish in the middle teens- about three times more likely than that long-range effort.  Granted, it takes a team to get the ball into the 18 (usually) so thank your buddies for getting you there.

Now, if you're sharp, you'll say, hey, four of the top seven teams in shot efficiency are in the bottom half of their conference!  What gives?  Well, as noted at the very top of the post there is a lot more than just shooting efficiency that dictates a team's record...what we ought to do is check back on these numbers in a few weeks.  Presumably LA, Portland and Chicago will move up the table as they settle in and get better at getting the ball forward; once they get more chances, if the finishing rate keeps up, they should win more.  Generally, a six or seven game sample size is pretty hairy to draw conclusions.

For players, the bottom line is, if you get 9 shots in a game inside the 18 (that's a LOT) you should have 2 goals to your name. And if you practice shooting, do so under pressure, inside 18 yards.  So...if I'm a forward, I'm trying to stay inside the 18 as much as possible (let those silly midfielders do all the heavy lifting!) and make the most of the chances I get.  (See Gomez for Bayern against Real Madrid on April 17th for a great example.  Took him 90 minutes, but the law of averages won out for him!)