Concussion

A great trailer of an upcoming sequel documentary to "Head Games."  The new film debuts today at NYU, where much cutting edge concussion research is being done.

http://headgamesthefilm.com/global/

Save % Analysis - Part II

Mignolade, part II

Stinkin' Lousy Players...

Part I of this mini-series illustrated some remarkable differences in goalkeeping stats between EPL GKs and NCAA GKs.  In men's NCAA DIII we saw that 141 GKs posted save percentages higher than Petr Cech, David De Gea, Joe Hart, Simon Mignolet, Tim Howard, Brad Guzan and basically every other starting GK in the EPL in 2012-13.  Something doesn't mesh there.  Here we'll try to parse out why college GKs appear to have greater success relative to their pro counterparts, and what that says about the other 20 players on the field.

To bring this down to the youth level, this post tracked the number of shots and passes attempted by my U13 boys team...37 shots led to 5 goals.  This was in a mere 40 minutes of indoor play, but all the same, at that rate we'd have taken just over 83 shots in a 90 minute game!  Without getting into shot conversion rates (and that was pretty interesting stuff- read the post for more) the main theory is that young kids play in way too big a rush.  Which is mostly OK; the problem is we don't see a lot of college teams behaving that differently from my U13s.

EPL teams put 1/3 of their shots on target- 1,961 on goal out of 5,891 attempts (33%) through 22 matches this year.  10% of all shots end up in goal in the EPL (a number proven steady over many years, and first noted by one of soccer's earliest and most notorious statisticians, Charles Reep).  Interestingly, as you'll see below, college teams at all levels and both genders convert about 10% of all attempts at goal, too.

Cold Weather Soccer

Hide And Seek

Find the ball's location in the photos below.  Determine which team is in possession and describe as completely as possible why you feel the ball is in the location you think it is.

Solutions are located under the "Photos" tab at the top of the blog.

Save Percentage Analysis - Part I

Mignolet's Slump-
Making Lemonade From Lemons

(Mignolade?)

In the never-ending search for intersections of useful data and applications to improve the game, some recent events have prompted the thoughts below.

I was reading Whoscored's nice piece on Mignolet's troubles as late which used this graphic (left) to show his form over the course of this season.

TOP TEN in Save Percentage BPL 2012-13
Image taken from Barriesview.com

28 Goals Against...1.27 GAA and 3 errors leading to goals in the past five games.  Not terribly impressive numbers and worrying for any Liverpool fan.  However, if we dig a little deeper we see that his save percentage is on track for his fine run of form over last season (which saw him finish in the top ten in save percentage).  So what gives?  We have to accept that even good GKs have stretches where they hurt their own cause (see De Gea/Hart the past couple years) but they typically bounce back. Mignolet ought to follow that pattern. This may all be a tempest in a teacup; Mignolet is legit, and so long as his coaches support him and he has good resilience, he'll be back at the top of the current class of GKs in short order.

So what's the connection between Mignolet and lousy offenses in NCAA Division III?  In looking at his stats, something jumped out at me.  For being such a talented guy, Mignolet's save percentage seemed low at 73%...which got me to looking into other BPL GKs numbers which showed me that save % in the EPL is surprising low across the board.  And then, inevitably, I had to ask what the numbers would show at the level at which I work in Division III.

U13 Homework

Soccer In Cold Weather

Homework Assignment:

Since the weather appears to be anti-LMSC this week, here's the mental training aspect for my teams.  It may take a little while, but if we can't train I'm sure the three hours (plus travel) that soccer would have taken up can be somewhat re-purposed for watching a little film.

The Task:

Watch a professional match (preferably in whole!) and jot down the build up to the goal from the initial assumption of possession to the final strike (if the goal is from a set piece, treat the whistle awarding the free kick or what have you as the final strike and trace the play back from the awarding of the dead ball).  

This is tough because you can't be sure when a goal will come, and replays won't take you back far enough to see the genesis of the possession, most times.  I suggest watching one team in particular rather than trying to analyze both teams (pick the team more likely to win! If Arsenal are playing Sunderland, analyze Arsenal...) and trying to develop the habit of recalling in real time the entirety of each possession.

See below for my own effort at this, and the screen grabs illustrating the process...for their part, the players need only do the notes portion...though I'll be hugely impressed (and any player would be concurrently enriched) if they want to print or email me screen grabs of the play of their choosing.  

Obviously, while I watch more soccer than anyone I know, it's unlikely I'll see every game/goal.  Academic honesty rests completely on the kid's shoulders here.  They don't have to be exact, but I'd like to see notes with a good faith effort to recreate the genesis of the possession, and the general path/number of passes and players involved.  Names aren't necessary, nor is accuracy of position.  I won't distinguish between a winger and an outside back - "flank" or "wide" player will suffice.

Anyone looking for a gold star may make note of any defensive errors that help create the goal, should any be present.

Today there are more than 38 games on tv on channels generally available in the USA.  ESPN3.com always has soccer matches on demand, and the EPL picks up again tomorrow following a weekend off for FA Cup play. Check this link for virtually every game broadcast live and on replay on TV in the US.

NBC and Fox both have highlight shows (for those not inclined to watch a full match) that show more than just 5 second clips of goals which might help expedite the assignment.  Their websites and apps would be the places to look for those, though there's no guarantee that the video will be sufficiently complete to for the assignment.

SAMPLE:

I watched the Arsenal/Coventy match, keeping a close eye on the heavily favored Arsenal side.  Happily for this exercise, within 15 minutes Arsenal delivered.  Even more happily, several events echo topics covered with my U13 teams.  

My notes of the play are simple (image on left) and that's about all I need from the players doing the assignment.  This isn't to be a massive time-consuming effort.

Below, I've added some screen grabs to show the steps I documented in my notes.  It'll help to refer to these for the defensive error I'd offer for my "gold star" status.  

The setting is simple.  Arsenal are holding a high back line, with the four defenders establishing a line 5 yards or so deep in their own half (the danger of such an approach being the huge space between their back line and their goal - the defenders must be very capable of anticipating long passes into that space and the GK must play very high as well to cover some of the space).

The forwards are pressing the ball when Coventry come within 20 yards of midfield or so, so the Arsenal team is 25 yards from front to back, a bit tighter than the classic dimension in team defending (35 yards).

Coventry wisely tried to keep the ball and advance it carefully, going touchline to touchline twice before the fateful forward pass from the center back:

 Here we see the holding midfielder (HM) for Arsenal just as he intercepts the pass...and in one touch he's taken possession and played the ball to his teammate, the attacking center mid (ACM).  LMSC players will recognize this as a fine example of winning the ball and moving it very quickly, something harped on frequently at training.  The ACM is close to the play, another point of emphasis; a team needs wide options, high options to spread the field but also must have a player or players very close to enable quick escapes.

Here we see the ACM turning and running toward the back 4.  Crucially, the striker is both onside - note in the above picture there is a defender very deep - and out of the field of vision of the central defender of Coventry.  When the ACM turns, he can see the striker, but the central defender can't.










Here the striker receives the ball and is able to turn because he's already behind the central defender.  The other defender (who held him onside in the first place) is too deep to prevent the striker from turning.  The right back for Coventry has been caught, either by his own laziness or inability to read the turnover as it occurred, on the outside of the Arsenal left winger.  The striker opts to play the ball wide into the space ahead of the left winger...







Clearly the winger has the drop on the Coventry right back, and only the GK has a chance to make a play.

 The GK makes a good go of it, but doesn't get it quite right, and the Arsenal winger does a wonderful job of going wide of the GK to an incredibly acute shooting angle and still finishing.











DEFENSIVE ERROR(S):

1. No turnovers in our half.  Even I'm tired of saying it; the LMSC kids must be sick of hearing it.  Coventry committed this cardinal sin.
2. The time it took Coventry to shift from their attacking shape to their defensive one was too slow.  A few years ago coaches talked about the 4 moments of the game...Offense, Defense, Transition to Offense and Transition to Defense.  Modern coaches are talking these days about the game being so fast (as Arsenal proved here) that there is no transitional moment...you're either one or the other, instantly.  Or you lose.
3. Not a part of this play, but the second goal Coventry conceded was from a set piece; a corner they didn't defend well enough.  Tim Lenahan, the men's coach at Northwestern University shared a great insight into his success...prevent SPEC goals: Set Pieces, Errors, Counter attacks.  Coventry put two of those on display and paid the price.

Goal Scoring

Unique And Universal Attacking Methods

There Are A Lot Of Roads, But There's Only One Destination

After sharing this great video of Aron Johansson (USMNT/AZ Alkmar Wunderkind) in this space a while back, I had a request to revisit the movement Johannsson displays inside the penalty area.  He's hardly unique in this aspect; all goalscorers are live wires inside 18 yards.  They move and recycle, constantly adjusting to the ball's location and the angles created by the play on the ball.  Perhaps most importantly, goalscorers understand that the staggeringly vast majority of goals are last touched inside 9 or so yards from the goalmouth.  Be active, and be close to the frame.  Using Fulham/Norwich video, we can see a good example of movement and industriousness inside the penalty area below.  The other concept regarding movement discussed below is that of attackers' starting positions when their team is in possession.  Marco Di Vaio, Landon Donovan and Fulham's Kasami offer some thoughts on how an attacker might go about getting the ball in the first place.

Crossing

Crossing Is Stupid

Here's a graphic for you...in the EPL crosses are accurate just a shade under 19% of the time!  Which still doesn't take into account the quality of the touch taken by the receiving player, the ability of the defenders to block the subsequent touch, or the GK's ability to save a shot created by a cross.  For all the gasping and drama created by crossing the ball, it really doesn't result in anything.  A simple bit of hard work by the defense pretty much nullifies any danger: