USA - Iceland GK Analysis

A fun game on Sunday afternoon, for sure.  Three goals from a young USA squad is encouraging, two sloppy goals conceded causes concern...though it's worth mentioning that the primary skill at the top level required to be a successful defender is, essentially, teamwork.  Chemistry, or whatever term you prefer to describe the glue holding a back 4 together, is unlike almost any other skill on the field.  It's the only skill which you can't train on your own, you can't watch film to improve (unless you watch the film with your partners), and, you can't formulate - the game is too variable to reduce defending in groups to an if-then proposition.  Every great defensive record has a steady lineup of veterans, and there's a reason for that.

But, it's the last line with which this post will be concerned.  Warning:  Nit picking ahead.

Here's Luis Robles on the first goal of the game....

Tough play.  A monster deflection certainly makes Robles less culpable...but there is one aspect of this play that bears a second look.  Watch this shortened clip, and notice the huge movement forward Robles makes as the ball is headed weakly by the CB:

That's a fine movement, but once the initial Iceland attacker is kept off the ball with a second, even weaker clearance (excellent work by the first white shirt to keep the ball alive in the penalty area), Robles is slow to react to the ball being played away from the goal line, and only adjusts slightly to his right.  Here, he's in his final position just as the shooter begins to hit the shot:

What if, as the ball was played away from goal, Robles had taken a quick step or two backward, like this:

And now, he'd have this extra yard of space to maybe not have to watch so helplessly as the ball goes in:

It's a very bang-bang play, and he's right to step forward on the initial header by his defender...if the attacker gets on the ball there, he's facing a 1v1 or breakaway save on the doorstep.  But, as the ball is knocked away from goal, perhaps (and that's a pretty big if) he could drop a tad deeper to give himself the extra reaction time on a shot taken in traffic.  Watch it again, and see his initial large movement forward, then the relative lack of movement right up to the shot.  Quiet feet are good, an excess of movement can be a far graver danger, but here there's some evidence that getting frozen can cost a GK as well.

Here's Iceland's second....this one is a killer.  Robles, after a conniving free kick by Iceland (taken very quickly, maybe too quickly?) gets sucked over to the near post (a topic touched on before in this space...a result of LOUSY American coaches who "know" that goals cannot be allowed at the near post) and gives up a relatively slow, curving shot to the far bar.  Look at his starting position as the shooter releases the shot:

Robles is 6' 1" and cat-quick.  A little guestimation math tells us this shot comes from 20 yards, 1 foot away from the front post.  Over 60 feet away.  Robles can cover the front post from much further towards the center, again, Ghost Robles:

Does that get him close enough to cover the front post, and still reach this shot:

That's really tight....But I think if I'm Luis, I would want to work on taking a better angle.  Of course, he's thinking the shooter could go by the defender to the outside, and now he's got a 1v1 party he won't want to arrive late to...maybe he was telling the CB to keep the shooter to the right, and HE dropped the ball....that'll kill a GK's chances of making a play.  There's plenty here to consider, so while the images show a simple location A versus location B situation, like the rest of life, it's a lot of gray area to manage!

Iceland helped us out as well....and it should be said that these are excellent GKs getting beaten.  They have great coaches, they have known these concepts for a long time, and while the greatest seem to make these plays every time, the reality is that as fast as these scoring plays happen, the remarkable thing about all this is that these guys can keep as many out as they do...give credit where it's due!

1v1 saves...tough.  But Jozy isn't going to get all tricky and dribble a GK...know your opponent!  He's hitting this first time every time.  The GKs read, decision-making, and, timing are good (that's three essential skills) but it's his angle and posture (two more skills, people) which cost him.  For my part, I see two options here...dive superman-style, hands to the ball, hard.  Risk of a PK and a red card, but that's life as a 'keeper.  Alternatively, the "German-style" block is a great option here, or any of the other blocking techniques.  Bottom line, either get the hands to the ball as Jozy's foot arrives on the other side of it, or set up shop IN FRONT of the ball....not off to one side, like this:

Here's the play live:

FCD Gonzalez

Sometimes That Spotlight Burns

I love this kid...he's a star being born before our eyes. But like so many precocious young stars, he's flawed, and it showed on the biggest stage this fall. The great news is that if he's coachable and determined to learn (and it's very reasonable to expect he is; how else did he achieve so much so young?!) nothing noted in this space is of any real concern as it's all eminently fixable.

However....Jesse Gonzalez does prove the point that athleticism is not nearly sufficient to be a GK. The old saw of putting the team's best athlete in goal is a recipe for disaster.

FC Dallas GK

Growing Up In The Spotlight

Tough couple plays for Jese Gonzales, FC Dallas' 20-year old GK in MLS playoff action.

First, he gets caught moving to his left on a ball swinging to his right...there's some possibility that he assessed the CB position as being in such a spot that the back post was protected, though we'll see below that he was not.  The audacity of the shot is remarkable, but the young GK was happy-footed and from this sort of range, simply needed to stay central and steady.  Watch the film, then see below about the geometry of the play:

Remarkable Season For The Fords

In addition to an incredibly consistent regular season title-winning run in the Centennial Conference (8th ranked conference in the nation out of 42 per Hero Sports) 9-0, plus 2-0 in the semi-final and final of the post-season Centennial Conference tournament, the Fords knocked off 8 NCAA Regionally-ranked teams over the course of the season.  This is a feat NEVER before accomplished in NCAA Division III men's soccer.  Never.

How'd they do it?

Here's a good profile for would-be championship winning teams to aim for (2015 saw 407 men's teams in NCAA Division III):

1. 29th toughest schedule in the nation
2. 17th most goals scored in the nation 
3. 6th fewest shots per goal of all teams scoring 52 or more goals
4. 2nd fewest shot attempts of teams scoring 52 or more goals (you'll go down the list 13 more spots before another top 50 Strength-of-Schedule team shows up on the shot attempts column)
5. 6th highest conversion rate
6. Tied for 12th in Minutes Per Goal Against....only one other top 30 team (by SOS) above the Fords

Efficiency in attack, stingy defense (after letting in 11 through the first five games on a 2-3 record).  That's sticking to it.  A strong sense of belief.

There was some other stuff...but we're not putting that on the web for everyone to see!

Centennial Conference Champions

The Haverford recap is here.

The NCAA Selection Show is here, November 9th at 1.30 PM.

The Hero Sports rankings of both teams and conferences in Men's D3 soccer is here - very interesting for high school students looking for a place to play in college.  Official NCAA Regional and (NSCAA Coaches Poll) National rankings here.

Starting Position

GK Starting Positions

A quick look at a top-level youth GK making a small, but important error on his starting position, and a pro GK getting things mostly right, but conceding anyway:

The GK is playing for NJCSA against the Philadelphia Union (U16).  He is a remarkable athlete, and certain to enjoy a quality college playing career.  But, typical of young GKs we can see he is stuck to his near post when the ball is quite clearly outside the 18 (0.00001 % of all goals are scored from here, people) so there's no need to be so protective of that part of the penalty area.  As a result, the GK ends up making a hurried touch on the cross (thankfully he's as athletic as he is...any less and it could have been far more troublesome) and conceding a corner.  Had he been two yards (maybe more, depending on his confidence and how close the server of the cross actually was when he hit the ball) deeper across the face of goal, and perhaps two yards higher off his line (again, that will be a corresponding distance based on the distance from the goal line of the server - and based on his skill set/confidence) this ball is a catch instead of a tip for a set piece.

And that's the real math.  If he catches this ball, and that turns into a counter attack...something NJCSA most certainly would have been hoping to do against an MLS club's team, well that's a big moment in a game.  On the other side of the coin, the Union would expect teams to bunker in a bit more, so the game plan would have called for creating many set pieces (40% of goals, depending on league, team and so forth, come from set plays) to help the offense manage a compact, tough defense.  So, the GK in positioning himself less than optimally, has played nicely into his opponent's plans, and missed a chance for his team to effect their plan!  That could be a "net 2" type of play, one less goal scoring chance for him, one more for his opponent.

Here's Geoff Cameron's equalizer for the USA this fall...watch the Mexico GK start almost 7 yards off his line, then recover...very aggressive starting position.  The defensive line holds level with the ball...which offers the GK lots of space to cover, but also a possibly easy catch.  Unless Bradley whips a perfect ball in, and Cameron gets ball side of his marker, both of which happened.  What's really interesting is that in this battle of nerves, Bradley didn't blink.  He hits the ball pretty much to the exact spot the GK was standing at the start of the set piece.  The GK recovers, and cannot react fast enough to block the powerful header.

Had he just stood where he was, we must wonder if this isn't an easy catch.  Of course, the question then becomes, could Bradley hit it hard enough to beat him at the near post (and could he see that the GK held his ground as he approaches to strike the ball)?  The main problem for the GK is that he got caught 1/2 way.  Had he stayed, I think this is punched easily to safety.  Had he simply moved faster (quick feet...a GKs #1 asset) and gotten all the way to the goal line and had his feet set (which may have meant a lower starting position, tradeoffs everywhere here) what would that extra 70 inches of reaction time meant to him?  Watch the full highlight of this goal here on youtube.

Attacker's Movement

Breaking The Defensive Line

Part two in a series (part I here) this is a great look at how the player who runs is the player who scores.  Granted, the two Sounders standing at the top of the penalty area are doing a job - they're keeping the center backs very honest.  But it's the very basic give-and-go Neagle runs with his teammate that allows Neagle to score...and it's the going that makes him almost impossible to stop:

It's worth mentioning, too, that his run, and the pass, both "break lines."  I watch lots of club soccer, and so much of it is passing and standing....very few runs or passes or dribbles actually penetrate a line of the defensive unit.  Think that's a simple concept?  Look at the remarkable timing here, the lucky bounce after the GK pulls a huge initial save off, and the persistence by Neagle to just keep after the loose ball.